Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Experts are predicting that in 2011 "pre-recorded" Blu-ray disc production or “U-Ray” is expected to top the 400 million unit mark, representing a 60 percent increase in production over 2009 figures, according to the research firm Futuresourc. In addition, those U-Ray sales are expected to be a drop in the bucket compared to anticipated unit production numbers a few years down the road.

Futuresource said that in 2014, it expects 2 billion Blu-ray discs to be shipped worldwide. Much of the growth in the Blu-ray market is due to "growing player ownership and falling disc prices," Futuresource senior consultant Michael Boreham said in a statement, C-Net has reported. Boreham also said that increasing Blu-ray popularity is helping to drive more "copy depth" in retail stores.

However, everyone is pinning their hopes on the prospect of 3D. Experts insist the medium, which is now a prominent player in theaters, could play an integral role in the popularity of Blu-ray going forward.

Fiona Hoy, a market analyst at Futuresource, said in a statement that "3D is ideally suited" to Blu-ray, and starting in 2012, the analyst believes there will be "very strong demand for 3D content, which will fuel additional [Blu-ray and U-ray sales] growth."
Futuresource is basing its prediction on other reports released in early December which claim Panasonic would hold the exclusive rights to the 3D Blu-ray version of "Avatar" through February 2012. The film, the top-grossing 3-D product of all time, is expected to be made available as a standalone product. Futuresource said "Avatar" is already boosting demand for 3D Blu-ray content, indicating that it could have significant impact on the market after Panasonic's exclusivity deal comes to an end.

Analysts are anticipating that Blu-ray is expected to replace the struggling DVD market in the coming years, which may indicate that the 3D technology will be applied as a standard for many new discs. Whether there will be a glut of 2D DVD discs on the market going forward remains to be seen, but 3D is expected to take over slowly.
Research firm In-Stat released a study recently that found total disc sales are expected to drop by $4.6 billion between 2009 and 2014. The research firm confirmed that Blu-ray sales will jump over that same period, but are not likely to grow enough to offset the significant sales declines of DVD.

Meanwhile, the 3D TV market is preparing for growth. C-Net also reports that Futuresource Consulting is predicting 4 million 3DTVs will be sold worldwide by the end of 2010, with that figure expected to double, at minimum, in 2011 to 5 million 3DTVs sold in the U.S, and another 3 million across Western Europe. Futuresource has also said that so far, "year-one adoption of 3DTV is running at a far quicker rate in most territories than it did for high-definition." The company added that vendors are seeing value in delivering 3D in their sets and manufacturers are now able to embed 3D chipsets at a relatively low cost, allowing them to increase their margins while still keeping 3D price points down to an acceptable level.
Futuresource has also noted that Toshiba's recent announcement of the release of its glasses free 3DTV in 2011 could be "discouraging some consumers from investing in the current generation of 3DTV." However, the research firm said it believes that the technology several years away from being made available in large sets for home users, and as many as seven years away from reaching "mass-market pricing."

Are consumers ready to adopt the technology? C-Net reminds us that in September, Deloitte unveiled the results of a study that found 83 percent of consumers do not believe 3D technology is enough to make them want to buy a new television. What’s more, roughly 60 percent of those surveyed said they wouldn't pay extra for 3D capabilities in their televisions. Deloitte also said it found that 31 percent of respondents believe 3D fails to "enhance the entertainment experience."

Similar reports are showing the same sentiments by consumers at theaters who say the films demanding pricy 3D tickets are not delivering on quality, have clunky glasses that distract viewers, and overall aren’t that much more entertaining than 2D films.

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Date: February 27, 2011
Locations: Glendale Heights, IL
Contact: Manoj Tantuwaya
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